Depth * Company * Zoomlion (000157): Debt reduction and fee optimization, financial structure performance, elastic release of performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations

The company issued the 2014 first-year medium-term note redemption announcement. It plans to redeem a cumulative 9 billion US dollars of medium-term notes on October 15, 2019. The medium-term notes to be redeemed this time will be issued on October 15,武汉夜网论坛 2014, with a term of 5 years and interest rates.5,

8%.

Key points supporting the rating The company began to downgrade its debt and optimize its financial structure, which will further improve profitability.

2019H1 company’s financial expenses are as high as 6.

2 trillion, financial expense ratio 2.

8%, asset-liability budget 63.

0%, the average value is significantly higher than the main level of the same period, of which the annual interest rate of the medium-term notes to be redeemed is 5.

8% is a large-scale expansion of the company’s interest-bearing debt, and the cost is higher, and the annual interest payment for this is up to 5.

After the repayment of the ticket, the company’s debt scale and financial costs will be significantly reduced, which will help to further improve profitability. In the first half of the year, the company’s monetary funds + transactional financial assets totaled 250.

500 million, operating cash flow reached 35.

800 million US dollars, the best level in the same period in history, the repayment of this vote will not adversely affect the company’s continuing operations and cash flow conditions; the company will further optimize the financial structure in the future, the rate of return and financial expense rate will gradually decline, salesThe annual increase in sales costs caused by the increase of maintenance personnel each year will lead to a rapid increase in sales expenses. Starting from next year, the sales expense ratio will also decrease. In addition, with strict control of management expenses, if the gross profit margin remains the same, the decline in the expense ratio during the period will affect the company’s net profit margin.Promotion contributes at least 1-2pct.

The policy is intensifying the counter-cyclical adjustment speed, and the future needs of the construction machinery industry are readjusted.

In order to cope with the downward pressure on the domestic economy, the National People’s Congress in early September explicitly proposed measures to determine the issuance and use of local government bonds, issued a new amount of special debt for the next year in advance, expanded the use of special debt, and strengthened special debt as a project.The use of capital has further increased the leverage on investment, and the level was reduced to 0 on September 16.

5 points, release appropriate liquidity to the real economy, proactive fiscal policy and relatively ample monetary policy to support the demand for construction machinery, supplement product update cycles, stricter environmental protection policies, artificial substitution and overseas market forces, weIt is believed that the industry has the expected demand potential in the next 1-2 years.

According to statistics from China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the growth rate of excavator sales rose to 19 in August.

5%, truck crane sales growth rate shortened to 3.

7%, concrete pump trucks and tower cranes are more prosperous. It is expected that in the fourth quarter and 2020, the number of excavators and truck cranes is expected to maintain a positive growth, while pump trucks and tower cranes will continue to maintain a medium and high-speed growth of about 30%.

The strong product force promotes the overall expansion of the market. The elastic release of performance in the next two years is expected to continue to exceed expectations.

Relying on the company’s strong product power, continuous improvement of channels and services, the company’s main market share of construction machinery products has continued to increase. The sales growth rate of truck cranes in the first eight months of 2019 exceeded 57%, which is much higher than the industry average growth rate.The share has been increased to nearly 28%. There is still room for further improvement in the market share in the next two years. It is expected to reach the goal of three points in the world. Even the sales of engineering cranes with small fluctuations in industry sales will remain at this year’s level.100%, market share increased to more than 30%, tower crane sales growth rate exceeded 140%, market share increased to more than 40%, this large business in the next 2 years, industry demand is more robust, the company’s competitive advantage is also very obvious, will becomeThe main point of revenue growth.

The industry ‘s best demand exceeded expectations. The company ‘s super product power continued to expand the market. The adjustment of product structure and the improvement of profitability brought about by debt reduction control fees are expected to drive the company ‘s performance in the next two years to continue to exceed expectations.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 北京桑拿洗浴保健will be 43.

7/57.

1/65.

0 million, corresponding to 0 EPS.

56/0.

73/0.

83 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 10 respectively.

8/8.

3/7.

3x, maintain BUY rating.

The main risks facing the rating The construction machinery industry’s prosperity exceeded expectations, industry competition intensified, and infrastructure and real estate investment exceeded expectations.